For all the worrying, and there is a lot of it, there is no real assurance that the federal government will – in the end – reduce overall spending. In fact, if the past is an indicator of the future, it will likely increase spending.
Spending Trends: A Look Back
During President Trump’s first swing at the fences (2017-2021), government spending increased significantly. Some blame Trump, some blame Congress, some blame Covid. The end result in any event was increased spending.
The Trump Playbook: Stacking the Deck
This time around, like the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Trump DOGEs are taking no chances (and very few prisoners). They have stacked the deck in their favor. But as we all know, that comes at a cost. In the case of the Dodgers, that cost is over $320 million. Like Trump and Charlie Sheen, it’s all about “winning.” But as we’ve seen in all three cases, winning ain’t easy.
Time to Pivot: A Message for Small and Mid-Size Businesses
So, full disclosure, I don’t know any more than the next guy (including the inside guys like Ohtani and Musk). But I am more than fairly confident that the money will continue to pour out in the directions one might expect.
What that means for all the small and mid-sized businesses that have built operations around the idea of serving the federal, state and local government, is that it’s time to pivot. Maybe you cannot be a prime in 2025, but you can always be a sub. And you can always re-examine or at least rethink opportunities in the commercial sector.
Underdogs Can Still Win
The game isn’t over until you say it’s over. The Cleveland Guardians made a serious run at the World Series last year – against all odds. And I am confident they will do it again this year. And their payroll? Somewhere between $85-105 million. Yeah, not even close to the Dodgers… not even in the same ballpark.
As a small to mid-size business, you can make a difference on multiple levels. Whether you do that as a direct contractor, a sub to a big dog, or as a provider in the commercial marketplace, you are keeping the American workforce employed and delivering a valuable service by being more effective and efficient than the bigs could ever be.
Final Thoughts: Stay Hungry, Stay Resilient
In the words of the most interesting man in the world, “Stay thirsty, my friends.” Run the good race, fight the good fight and outlast the pretenders.
